Affiliate Disclosure
ProbabilityWire is an independent informational portal covering prediction markets, event contracts, prediction-market platforms, market-implied probabilities, sports, crypto, economics, technology, artificial intelligence, entertainment, and other real-world events. This Affiliate Disclosure explains how we may be compensated when you interact with certain links or promotions on our site.
The Quick, Clear Bottom Line on Affiliate Links
Some links on ProbabilityWire may be affiliate, referral, or partner links. That means we may receive compensation if you click a qualifying link and then take an action that a partner recognizes as eligible - such as registering, opening an account, making a first deposit, completing a qualifying trade, subscribing, or otherwise interacting with a provider under the terms of a commercial arrangement.
Not every link is an affiliate link, and not every platform, product, or service mentioned on ProbabilityWire is a partner. We also publish content about companies and platforms with which we have no commercial relationship.
How Compensation Can Work (And Why It Varies)
Compensation structures are not one-size-fits-all and can change over time. Depending on the provider and the specific arrangement, compensation may include models such as:
- Referral fees or commissions
- Cost per acquisition (CPA)
- Cost per click (CPC)
- Revenue share
- Sponsorships
- Other commercial arrangements that may apply to a specific campaign or page
If you are comparing platforms or offers, assume that the details of any commercial arrangement are separate from the terms you receive as a user. Your terms are determined by the provider’s current policies and your eligibility, not by our compensation model.
Editorial Independence: Compensation Should Not Change the Facts
Our goal is to publish useful, accurate, easy-to-understand information. Commercial relationships should not change the basic factual meaning of what we present to readers.
That said, any site that earns revenue can face potential conflicts of interest. We try to manage that by focusing on clarity, noting uncertainties when they exist, and encouraging you to verify important details directly with the provider before making decisions.
If you are looking for more context on how we approach market data, implied probabilities, and event coverage, you may also want to review our internal page: About ProbabilityWire.
Third-Party Offers Can Change Fast - Always Double-Check
Prediction markets, event-contract platforms, exchanges, and related services can update their products and rules quickly. Third-party offers, availability, eligibility requirements, fees, promotions, terms, geographic availability, and platform features can change at any time.
Because of that, ProbabilityWire cannot guarantee that any information you read here will match a provider’s latest terms at the moment you act. Before registering, depositing, trading, or accepting a promotion, verify current details directly on the provider’s website and review the latest terms and disclosures.
Clicking a Link Does Not Guarantee You Will Qualify
Following an affiliate, referral, or partner link does not guarantee eligibility for a platform, a specific promotion, an account, or any service.
Providers may apply eligibility requirements such as identity verification, age requirements, location-based availability, account history checks, payment restrictions, compliance reviews, promotional limits, or other conditions. You are responsible for confirming whether you qualify and whether a product or service fits your needs.
Risk Reminder: Markets Are Not Promises
Prediction-market participation may involve financial risk, including the risk of losing money. Market-implied probabilities reflect what participants are collectively pricing at a point in time - not what will definitely happen.
Even when a probability looks “high,” real-world outcomes can still differ due to new information, unexpected events, liquidity changes, rule interpretations, settlement terms, and other factors. Use probabilities as a tool for understanding sentiment and pricing, not as a guarantee.
Not a Broker, Operator, or Adviser
ProbabilityWire is an informational website. We do not operate a prediction market or exchange, and we are not a sportsbook. We are not a financial adviser or investment adviser, and we are not a representative of third-party platforms mentioned on our site.
Nothing on ProbabilityWire should be interpreted as personalized financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. If you need advice for your specific situation, consider speaking with a qualified professional.
We Also Cover Companies With No Commercial Relationship
ProbabilityWire may publish news, explainers, comparisons, and analysis about platforms, companies, technologies, public figures, and events even when we have no affiliate, referral, sponsorship, or partner relationship with the entities mentioned.
We do this because coverage decisions can be driven by reader interest, newsworthiness, educational value, or relevance to prediction markets and market-implied probabilities - not just commercial arrangements.
Questions About This Disclosure
If you have questions about this Affiliate Disclosure, you can contact ProbabilityWire using the contact method listed on our website. For more details, please visit our Contact page.
By using ProbabilityWire, you acknowledge that some links may be affiliate, referral, or partner links, and that you should always verify current terms directly with any third-party provider before taking action.