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Terms

These Terms of Use (“Terms”) explain the rules for using ProbabilityWire’s website, pages, tools, newsletters, feeds, and other online services we provide (collectively, the “Website”), along with any articles, charts, data, commentary, and other materials made available through the Website (the “Content”).

By accessing or using the Website, you agree to these Terms. If you do not agree, do not use the Website.

If you are using the Website on behalf of an organization, you are confirming that you have authority to bind that organization to these Terms.

What ProbabilityWire Is (and Isn’t)

ProbabilityWire is an independent informational portal covering prediction markets, event contracts, prediction-market platforms, market-implied probabilities, sports, crypto, economics, technology, artificial intelligence, entertainment, politics, and other real-world events.

ProbabilityWire is not a prediction-market platform, broker, exchange, sportsbook, casino, payment processor, wallet provider, or custodian. We do not operate third-party platforms, and we do not handle user accounts, trades, deposits, withdrawals, custody, or settlement.

Informational Use Only - Not Advice You Should Rely On

All Content is provided for general informational and educational purposes. It may include summaries, explanations, and commentary about markets and events, but it is not tailored to your situation.

ProbabilityWire does not provide financial, investment, legal, tax, accounting, compliance, or gambling advice. Nothing on the Website is a recommendation, endorsement, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any product, contract, token, security, or other instrument. You are responsible for your own decisions, including whether to participate in any market, sign up for any platform, or take any action based on information you saw on the Website.

If you need advice, you should consult a qualified professional who can assess your specific circumstances.

Understanding Prediction-Market Prices and Market-Implied Probabilities

The Website may discuss prediction markets, event contracts, and market-implied probabilities. Prices, implied probabilities, and market sentiment can change quickly, sometimes within seconds, and can be influenced by new information, liquidity, market rules, fees, and participant behavior.

Market-implied probabilities are not guarantees. They reflect what a particular market is pricing at a specific moment, under that market’s conditions, and they can be wrong. Even a high implied probability does not mean an outcome will occur, and a low implied probability does not mean an outcome cannot occur.

If ProbabilityWire displays or references odds, prices, probabilities, volumes, order books, charts, or similar metrics, you should treat them as informational snapshots, not promises of future results.

Accuracy, Timeliness, and the Real World’s Messy Updates

We aim to publish helpful, good-faith information, but we cannot promise that any Content is complete, accurate, current, or error-free. News can break late, sources can conflict, platforms can update rules, and data feeds can lag, change, or become unavailable.

Content may include estimates, interpretations, projections, or opinions. Those may change over time without notice. You should verify important information directly with primary sources and the relevant platform before making decisions.

Third-Party Platforms - You Use Them at Your Own Risk

ProbabilityWire may reference or discuss third-party prediction-market platforms, exchanges, wallets, analytics providers, sportsbooks, data vendors, social platforms, advertisers, and other external services (“Third-Party Platforms”). We may also link to external websites for context or convenience.

ProbabilityWire does not operate Third-Party Platforms and is not responsible for:

  • account creation, access, security, or authentication
  • identity verification, know-your-customer checks, eligibility screening, or onboarding
  • trading, matching, pricing, liquidity, or fees
  • deposits, withdrawals, custody, payment processing, chargebacks, or refunds
  • market rules, contract terms, dispute processes, resolution criteria, or settlement
  • outages, delays, hacks, errors, bugs, forks, suspensions, or closures
  • customer support, content, policies, or any products or services offered by third parties

Your relationship with any Third-Party Platform is between you and that third party. You should read and understand their terms, rules, risk disclosures, and privacy practices before using them.

Regulation, Eligibility, and Jurisdiction Limits Can Change

Platform availability, regulation, eligibility requirements, fees, market rules, and features may differ by jurisdiction and may change over time. Some services may be restricted, blocked, or unavailable where you live, work, travel, or maintain citizenship or residency.

You are responsible for determining whether a service is available to you and permitted in your jurisdiction, and for complying with applicable laws, rules, and regulations. When it matters, verify details directly with the relevant platform and relevant authorities.

Affiliate Relationships and How We Keep the Lights On

ProbabilityWire may participate in affiliate programs. This means we may earn a commission if you click certain links, sign up, or complete an action with a third party. This does not increase your cost unless the third party states otherwise, and it does not change our commitment to providing useful information.

Affiliate relationships can influence what we cover or how we present links, but we strive to keep explanations accurate, balanced, and clear. You should still do your own research and confirm terms directly with the provider.

For more on how we handle data and tracking related to links, see our Privacy Policy (if available).

Intellectual Property - What You Can and Can’t Reuse

The Website and Content are owned by ProbabilityWire or used with permission and are protected by intellectual property laws. This includes text, graphics, logos, page layout, design, and original compilations of Content.

You may view, download, and print Content for your personal, non-commercial use, as long as you do not remove notices or misrepresent the source.

Unless we explicitly allow it in writing, you may not:

  • copy, republish, sell, license, or distribute Content for commercial purposes
  • scrape, harvest, or systematically extract data at scale
  • modify, translate, create derivative works from, or publicly display Content
  • use our brand, name, or logos in a way that suggests endorsement

If you want to quote or reference ProbabilityWire, short excerpts with clear attribution and a link to the original page are generally acceptable. For anything more, request permission.

Ground Rules - Acceptable Use That Protects Everyone

You agree to use the Website responsibly and not to misuse it. In particular, you will not:

  • break or attempt to break the Website’s security or access controls
  • interfere with or disrupt the Website’s operation, hosting, or networks
  • use automated tools to overload the Website, including aggressive crawling or scraping
  • upload or transmit malware, malicious code, or harmful content
  • impersonate others, misrepresent your affiliation, or attempt to deceive users
  • use the Website in ways that violate applicable laws or regulations

We may restrict, suspend, or block access to the Website for behavior that we reasonably believe violates these Terms or threatens the Website, users, or third parties.

User Content (If We Offer Comments, Submissions, or Tips)

If the Website allows you to submit content, such as comments, messages, tips, or other materials (“User Content”), you are responsible for what you submit. You represent that you have the rights to share it and that it does not violate laws or third-party rights.

By submitting User Content, you grant ProbabilityWire a non-exclusive, worldwide, royalty-free license to use, reproduce, display, and distribute that User Content in connection with operating and promoting the Website. You can request removal where feasible, but copies may remain in backups, logs, or quoted contexts.

We may moderate or remove User Content at our discretion, but we do not have an obligation to monitor everything.

Availability - Expect Updates, Experiments, and Occasional Downtime

We may change, suspend, or discontinue any part of the Website at any time, including features, formats, coverage areas, or data sources. The Website may be unavailable from time to time due to maintenance, updates, outages, or events outside our control.

We are not responsible for losses or decisions you make because the Website is unavailable or because any feature changes.

Important Disclaimers - Read This Before You Rely on Anything

The Website and Content are provided on an “as is” and “as available” basis. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, ProbabilityWire disclaims all warranties, whether express or implied, including implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

Without limiting the above, ProbabilityWire does not warrant that:

  • the Content will be accurate, complete, or current
  • any market data, probabilities, or prices will match those shown on third-party platforms
  • the Website will be uninterrupted, secure, or error-free
  • any defects will be corrected immediately, or that the Website is free of harmful components

Reasonable Limits on Liability

To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, ProbabilityWire will not be liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential, special, or punitive damages, or for any loss of profits, revenues, data, goodwill, or business opportunities, arising out of or related to your use of (or inability to use) the Website or Content.

This includes losses related to reliance on market-implied probabilities, third-party platform actions, market resolution outcomes, settlement decisions, account restrictions, fees, or changes in platform availability.

In jurisdictions that do not allow certain limitations of liability, some of the above limitations may not apply to you. In that case, liability will be limited to the maximum extent permitted by law.

Changes to These Terms - Keeping the Rules Current

We may update these Terms from time to time to reflect changes in the Website, the Content, or legal and operational needs. When we do, we will update the “Last updated” date at the top of this page, if displayed, or otherwise indicate that changes were made.

Your continued use of the Website after updated Terms are posted means you accept the updated Terms.

Contact ProbabilityWire

Questions about these Terms, corrections, or content concerns should be sent through our Contact page (if available).

If you are the site owner finalizing this draft, you may want to add a dedicated email address and any other official contact method you prefer. This draft intentionally does not invent contact details that have not been provided.